Wisconsin Judicial Election Could Spell the End of Musk and Trump’s Special Relationship
Judicial races in the United States rarely attract a lot of money and the turnout is often light. As any consumer of political news could tell you, the recent race for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court was a huge exception to this trend. According to the Associated Press, total spending on this race was over $100 million. It was roughly double the previous record amount which was spent on another Supreme Court race in Wisconsin just two years ago ($51 million). Though the race was in theory a non-partisan contest, it was clear that Brad Schimel was supported by Republicans and Susan Crawford was endorsed by the Democrats.
The big news in the campaign finance world is that the “temporary government employee” and world’s richest man Elon Musk directly spent $3 million and through allied groups an additional $19 million for a total of $21 million in support of Brad Schimel. Musk also elevated the importance of the Wisconsin race saying that the fate of Western Civilization hung in the balance. Although Musk’s support carries very strong implications of Trump support, Musk is not Trump. The results in Wisconsin show that none of the Trump surrogates have the influence that Trump has.
Political analysts, myself included, spend a lot of time and energy trying to divine the meaning of elections. A lot of folks quite understandably have been astonished by the amount Musk spent here. Of course, that is an important point to note. However, the overwhelming significance of the amount of money spent on this race is this: if a hundred million dollars is spent on a Wisconsin State Supreme Court race, how much is going to be spent when control of the House of Representatives is on the line next year? Without a doubt, in 2026 we are looking at the most expensive midterm election in American history. The other lesson to learn about Musk’s spending is that money cannot always buy an election. Musk is not the first wealthy individual to learn this lesson, and likely won’t be the last.
The turnout in Wisconsin was simply extraordinary. It was fully 40 percentage points higher than for the same race in 2023, and it is only a few hundred thousand votes short of the number that might turn out in a midterm election. The mainstream media has not focused on the fact that the race between the liberal candidate Susan Crawford and Brad Schimel was not even close (55 percent Crawford, 45 percent Schimel). The turnout in Wisconsin tells us that heading into the 2026 midterms, the Democratic electorate is fired up and ready to go. However, Republicans are not unmotivated by any means. According to the New York Times, 60 percent of those who voted for Trump in November turned out to vote for Schimel. The bottom line is that Republicans are motivated, but Democrats are fired up.
Analysts looking at the Wisconsin Supreme Court race are ignoring the other races that were also on the ballot, particularly the race for state superintendent of instruction. This race, like the contest for state supreme court judge, was officially nonpartisan. However, the incumbent Jill Underly was running with support from the Wisconsin Democratic Party and teachers’ unions, while her challenger, Brittany Kinser, is supported by the GOP. Underly defeated Kinser by a margin of 53 percent to 47 percent which is a very respectable win in a battleground state.
Give that the Democratic margin in the supreme court race was ten points as opposed to six points in the state superintendent contest, we can argue that Musk’s involvement in race cost the GOP four percentage points. Granted there are a few other possibilities – foremost among them the quality of the candidates and the political attention paid. However, the gap in the margin between the two races correlates with polling on Musk and his work at DOGE. A recent national poll from Marquette University finds that roughly 60 percent disapprove personally of Musk and his work at DOGE.
So, what are the main takeaways from the April Wisconsin Supreme Court race as we look to the 2026 midterms? Three things stand out for me:
· Democrats are very engaged and will turn out in big numbers;
· Elon Musk is a real political liability and could easily tilt key races in the Democrats’ direction. One must wonder if Musk’s relationship with Trump will survive the loss in Wisconsin; and,
· The 2026 midterms will be the most expensive midterm elections in American history.
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