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Polling from Quinnipiac University released on April 10 shows that just under three out of four Americans (72 percent) feel that “President Trump’s tariffs” will hurt the economy in the short term. While these numbers are significant enough by themselves, if we delve into the crosstabs we find some significant patterns, Republicans by a small margin think that Trump’s tariffs will help the economy in the short term (46 percent help, 44 hurt). Democrats are almost universal in their view that Trump’s tariffs will hurt the economy (97 percent). Independents strongly see Trump’s tariffs as damaging the economy in the short term (19 percent help, 72 percent hurt).  

Only in relative terms are voters more supportive on the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the economy in the long term. Fully 53 percent see the tariffs as harmful to the economy in the long term, while 41 percent see them as helping the economy. Republicans strongly feel the tariffs will help the economy in the long term (87 percent, 10 percent hurt). Democrats almost universally see the tariffs as harmful (3 percent help, 95 percent hurt). Independent voters by a clear majority as seeing the Trump tariffs as hurting the economy in the long term (35 percent help, 57 percent hurt).

It is worth noting that women are far more likely to see the Trump tariffs as hurting the economy in the long term (32 percent help, 62 percent hurt) than are men (50 percent help, 44 percent hurt).  

Dovetailing with Trump’s poor scores on the tariffs, voters also give Trump poor scores on his handling of the overall economy. Fully 55 percent of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy while 40 percent approve. There is the expected political divide between Republicans (84 percent approve, 12 percent disapprove) and Democrats (3 percent approve, 95 percent disapprove).  Fifty-nine (59) percent of Independents disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy while one in three (33 percent) approve. Women are especially critical of Trump’s economic performance (32 percent approve, 63 percent disapprove).

What economic issues are on voters’ minds?  A 47 percent plurality say price of food/goods is their top economic issue, while 20 percent pick the cost of housing/rent. There is unanimity among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents in seeing the price of food/goods as the top economic concern.  

In the coming days, there will be more polling about Trump’s tariffs. Quinnipiac is one of the best polling organizations around, so I think that other polls will give Trump similar scores.  Trump won the White House at least in part because voters thought that he would do a better job on the economy than Vice President Harris. The evidence in this research, along with other polling, shows that Trump’s position on the tariffs is hurting his already poor scores on the economy.  For a president whose perceived handling of the economy is his greatest asset, the current polling is a real warning sign of danger to come. Trump’s polling on economic issues might weaken his position among vulnerable Republicans during the upcoming debate on tax cuts fueled by Medicaid cuts.  

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