“I’m writing this in Dublin, where I’ve been ecstatically celebrating the local and EU election results. Sinn Fein, which good people feared would gain power in the Republic and threaten the fragile peace in Northern Ireland, has been losing support for some months and now has been comprehensively thrashed in the local and EU elections.” Historian and writer Ruth Dudley Edwards, the Newsletter, June 13, 2024
“You are entitled to your opinion. But you are not entitled to your own facts.” Daniel Patrick Moynihan, late Democratic Senator from New York and university professor.
Looking at the results of the Irish local and European parliament elections one week after the voting, it is a good time to ask ourselves what happened? If you look at the coverage in the Irish Times and by RTE you might think that the elections were a referendum on Sinn Féin and that the electorate rejected Sinn Féin. This is incorrect. The elections were not a referendum on Sinn Féin, but rather about who Irish citizens wanted to represent them at local councils and at the European parliament.
Sinn Féin went into the 2024 elections with ambitious plans and ran a large number of candidates. After the elections, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald acknowledged that things had not gone their way. As the Irish Times reported: “It has not been our day but we will have our day … we clearly have lessons to learn,” she said. “We’ve literally been on thousands, probably tens of thousands of doorsteps.”
So, the election results were disappointing for Sinn Féin but were they as devastating as the media and some political commentators argue? Well, let us look at the numbers. There is no better place to look than the site Ireland Votes. According to Ireland Votes, Fianna Fáil ‘s vote share in local races was 22.9 percent (down 4.0), Fine Gael 23.1 percent (down 2.2), and Sinn Féin 11.8 percent (up 2.3). Looking at the results for elections to the European parliament, Fianna Fáil received 20.4 percent of the vote (up 3.8), Fine Gael 20.8 percent (down 8.8) and Sinn Féin 11.1 percent (down .6).
There are several possible conclusions that you can make from these data. First, as Mary Lou McDonald would agree the election results do not represent major gains for Sinn Féin. However, you cannot conclude from these results, as Ruth Dudley Edwards does in the Newsletter that Sinn Féin was “completely thrashed.” The evidence simply does not justify judgements like this. A more accurate conclusion to draw from the election results is that support for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the two main parties in government is slipping. Only when Sinn Féin is judged against some vague hypothetical standard can you conclude that the 2024 elections were a defeat for Sinn Féin. Political analysts and those in the media are certainly entitled to their own opinions, but they are not entitled to their own facts.
Looking ahead towards the next general election, the choice will be between more of the same with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael or change with Sinn Féin. My guess is that when confronted with the choice of status quo for five more years with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael or change with Sinn Féin, Irish voters will opt to give Sinn Féin a chance.
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