Background
First of all, please note that this analysis is best on publicly available data via CNN and that any views expressed in this analysis are strictly my own.
Overall, just one over one out of five voters (22%) were 65 and over. This compares to 30% for those 50 to 64, 16% for those 40 to 49, 16% to those 30 to 39, 7% for those 25 to 29 and 9% for those 18 to 25.
Trump won voters age 65 and over by a margin of 51% to 48% (3 percentage points). He won voters ages 50 to 64 by an identical margin (51% to 48%).
Comparison with 2016
In 2016, 16% of the electorate was over age 65 while 30% was ages 50 to 64. President Trump won the age 65 and over category by a seven-point margin. Trump’s margin among the 50 to 64 age group was very similar to the 65 plus (52% to 45%). The 50 to 64 age cohort made up 30% of the electorate. Overall, the 50 plus electorate increased from 47% in 2016 to 52% in 2020.
So, the bottom line is that Trump’s margin went from plus seven with seniors in 2016 to plus 3 in 2020. This is a very notable difference and especially since the 65 plus proportion of the electorate went from 16% in 2016 to 22% in 2020.
Regional Breakdown
On a regional basis, President Trump won 50% of seniors in the East (48% Biden). Eastern voters 50 to 64 gave Biden a higher vote share (50% Biden, 50% Trump). In the Midwest both seniors (54% Trump, 44% Biden) and voters 50 to 54 (52% Trump, 47% Biden) back Trump.
President Trump wins 54% from Southern voters 50 to 64 (54% Trump, 44% Biden) and the 65 plus (54% Trump, 45% Biden).
Vice President does best among older voters in the West picking up fully 57% of the 65 plus vote and 54% of those ages 50 to 64.
Racial Breakdown
Fifty-six percent (56%) of white voters age 65 and over supported Trump as did 59% of those ages 50 to 64. Vice President Biden won a rousing endorsement from Black seniors (91%) and those ages 50 to 64 (92%).
Among Latino voters, just over two-thirds of those ages 65 plus back Biden (68% Biden, 30% Trump). Biden fares a little less well among those 50 to 64 (65% Biden, 34% Trump).
The Gender Gap
President Trump won 56% among men ages 50 to 64 (56% Trump, 43% Biden) and the 65 plus (56% Trump, 43% Biden). Vice President Biden wins majorities for women voters age 65 and over (52% Biden, 47% Trump) and those ages 50 to 64 (53% Biden, 46% Trump).
Battleground States
Arizona
Vice President Biden and President Trump fought to a draw among the 65 plus (50% Biden, 50% Trump) while President Trump won a notable victory among those 50 to 64 (46% Biden, 53% Trump). Important to note senior women emphatically baked Biden (52% Biden, 47% Trump) especially when compared with those ages 50 to 64 (47%). White college seniors (54% Biden) and those 50 to 64 back Biden (58% Biden).
Florida
In Florida, 52% of seniors back President Trump while 47% support Biden. The Vice President does slightly less well with those ages 50 to 64 (53% Trump, 45% Biden). Among white voters, fully 60% of seniors back Trump while 39% back Biden. President Trump does even better with those ages 50 to 64 (64% Trump, 35% Biden).
Vice President Biden wins a majority among Latino seniors (53% Biden, 45% Trump) while the 50 to 64 back Trump (55% Trump, 43% Biden).
Overall, 59% of the Florida electorate was age 50 and over — 28% ages 50 to 64 and seniors 31%. This is up substantially from 2016 when 50% of the electorate was 50 and over (29% 50 to 64 and 21% age 65 and over).
Georgia
Fifty six percent (56%) of Georgia seniors back Trump as do 52% of those 50 to 64). President Trump does very well with white seniors (73%) and those 50 to 64 (73%). Black seniors (93%) and black voters (94%) are especially supportive of Vice President Biden. Interesting to note that women age 65 over back Trump (52% Trump, 47% Biden) and those 50 to 64 over mirror images of each other (52% Biden, 47% Trump).
Michigan
Fully 54% of Michigan seniors back Trump (54% Biden, 46% Trump) while those 50 to 64 back Trump (49% Biden, 51% Trump). Vice President Biden’s performance with older voters is clearly fueled by his performance with non-whites as both white seniors (51% Trump, 49% Biden) and those 50 to 64 (57% Trump, 43% Biden) back President Trump.
North Carolina
President Trump wins both the 65 plus vote (58%) and those 50 to 64 (52%).
Ohio
In the Buckeye State, President Trump receives enthusiastic support from those 65 plus (62%) and those 50 to 64 (57%).
Pennsylvania
A majority of seniors (51% Biden, 48% Trump) support the Vice President. Those 50 to 64 offer a different picture (40% Biden, 59% Trump). Biden fares especially well with college educated seniors (55%).
Wisconsin
Forty-seven percent (47%) of seniors and 46% of those 50 to 64 back Vice President Biden. Worth noting Biden wins 52% of senior women.
White-Non-College Seniors
An interesting item from the exit polling data from CNN is that among white non college educated voters, Vice President Biden fared disproportionately better among seniors than those ages 50 to 64. Please see the chart below.
Conclusions
A Critically Important Part of the Winning Coalition
The bottom line is that Vice President Biden’s performance among the 65 plus was a critically important part of his victory. While the final margins were not aligned with the polling, this should not in any way shape of from detract from the importance of this achievement. Reducing President Trump’s margin from 7 to 3 percentage points may well have been the critical building block in Vice President Biden’s win. That’s the good news for the Democrats. The bad news is that there are no guarantees that this is the start of a pattern. It could simply be a one-time occurrence.
The Battleground States
Vice President Biden’s win among seniors in Michigan (54%) and Pennsylvania (51%) were critical to his victory in these states.
The 45 to 65 Age Cohort
This article focuses on seniors the 65 plus. However, there is a trend among the 45 to 64 that Brookings notes that is important for the future
“However, what is new is the shift toward more Democratic (or less Republican) support among older segments of the population: ages 45 to 64 and ages 65 and older. This is the first presidential election since 2000 that the former age group shows a Democratic advantage nationally.”
Suggestions for Further Research/Concern for Democrats
Vice President Biden’s performance in Florida is worth further investigation. I have no idea how the numbers here ended up so differently than the polling. It is worth further investigation. If Democrats hope to compete in Florida, they must do better among the 65 plus than they did in 2020.
The difference among white non-college seniors and those 50 to 64 is very intriguing. This should be investigated. There could be important clues as to how Democrats can connect — and pry votes away from Trump’s base.
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